by Armen Kharazian
International mediation may have succeeded in silencing the guns in Nagorno Karabakh, but the prevailing "no war, no peace" situations remains threatened by the slow progress toward a lasting solution to the conflict.
At stake is the safety and the right to self-determination by the region's 150,000 Armenians, along with the national security of Armenia itself.
It is this security issue, seen in the light of the long history of mistrust toward Azerbaijan which ruled Nagorno Karabakh during the communist era, that stands out as a key factor and a prerequisite in a peace process aimed at a lasting political settlement of the conflict.
At the peak of the armed phase of the struggle during the winter of 1993-94, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale offensive to crush the region's independence movement, pounding Armenian towns and villages with heavy artillery and imposing a crippling blockade against the civilian population.
Azerbaijan's overwhelming superiority in conventional arms, acquired from the departing Soviet army, gave no alternative to Nagorno Karabakh but to fight for the physical survival of its people, prevent future deportations and ethnic cleansing, and create the security guarantees against future military offensives.
Like Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh built its arsenal mainly with the weapons left behind by the departing Soviet troops-but with several major differences. While Azerbaijan had acquired a quantitative edge in weaponry well above the limits permitted under the terms of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, Moscow had relinquished its rights on the military hardware left in Nagorno Karabakh with the understanding that accountability will be determined after a comprehensive settlement of the conflict.
To date, the Defense Army of Nagorno Karabakh-which was created in 1992-has been able to deter Azerbaijani military offensives, secure its borders, a buffer zone and the Lachin corridor to secure its free, safe and unimpeded access to Armenia and the outside world.
It has also honored an unconditional cease-fire in the region since May 1994 and as a principal signatory to the accord, assumed direct responsibility for maintaining the truce even in the absence of international peacekeepers.
Nagorno Karabakh now has a reasonable and sufficient level of self-security and thanks to the efforts of the international community and the OSCE Minsk Group, is engaged in direct peace negotiations along with other parties to the conflict.
However, due to Azerbaijan's military potential, continued buildup of its arsenal to levels significantly higher than its quotas under international arms control treaties, and the slow progress of the negotiations, the cease-fire remains fragile, and the security environment nothing more than a condition of "no war, no peace."
Azerbaijan has not only refused to reduce its excess weapons, but has also gone as far as declaring its intention to seek an increase in its permitted holdings to even more threatening levels, thus accentuating the need for a fundamental resolution to the problem of conventional security in the region as a prelude to a lasting political solution.
Peace and arms control are inseparable, and in the case of Karabakh, the safety net of its own Defense Army is the fundamental guarantor of its security and freedom of its 150,000 Armenian population.
As the status of the conventional military forces of Nagorno Karabakh enters the agenda of the CFE negotiations, discussions focus on measures designed to engage all the interested parties and provide for greater transparency, fuller accountability and verifiability without adversely affecting the security of any party.
This, Armenia believes, should not only include Nagorno Karabakh's right to self-security, but also, through the commissioning of a sub-regional arms control process, its incorporation into an international framework based on the principle of preserving Karabakh's own security guarantees.
Elusive as the concept might seem, Armenia hopes that mediators could help the parties take essential first steps toward that early objective by officially denouncing the threat or use of force against each other and to commit themselves to cooperate with each other to establish lasting security, confidence and arms control measures.
True that the Nagorno Karabakh cease-fire is still holding, but without such a commitment by the antagonists real peace remains elusive. Brute force has not solved international conflicts, and Nagorno Karabakh is not different.
The peace process should recognize that achieving balanced and stable defense force levels among the conflicting parties, consistent with their respective security requirements, remains an essential foundation for preventing any future recurrence of the conflict.
The OSCE has come a long way in cooling a potentially explosive situation. Now it's up to the parties to work with the OSCE and seek its assistance in working out a regional security balance in and around the area of conflict, which, along with appropriate international security guarantees, could help push the peace process forward toward a lasting solution.
Armen Kharazian is the Director of the Armenian Foreign Ministry's Arms Control and Disarmament Division and member of the Foreign Ministry's Nagorno Karabakh negotiations delegation.
