by David Zenian
TEHRAN - Signs of unrest are emerging across the Islamic Republic of Iran, but political analysts hope to tap the isolated acts of protest in favor of reforms and economic recovery after eight years of war with Iraq.
The government is aware that the double-edged sword of poverty can shake the foundations of the Republic, but also seems determined to move ahead with its much-criticized five-year development plan designed to adjust imbalances and encourage privatization.
For the first time in many years, Iranians are reported to have taken to the streets to demonstrate against inflation, and, on at least one occasion, the strict implementation of the Islamic dress code.
When police tried to round up the women in Esfahan showing a strand of hair by pulling back their chadors or black head scarves, their menfolk interfered and at least a few policemen were roughed up.
According to a recent edition of the hardline newspaper Jehan Islam, a protest erupted into a clash between angry bus riders and police over the doubling of express bus tickets in July.
The bus company canceled the price hike.
In late June, hundreds of students at the Open University in Tehran and Karaj, a private institution with 200,000 nation-wide enrollment, held sit-ins over a purported doubling of tuitions.
The government has denied the allegations, but said the subsidization of many goods should end if the nation is to take its first cautious steps toward economic development.
And since April of this year, the government of President Hashemi Rafsanjani seems to be doing exactly that.
The sharp cost of living increases since April are the direct result of the "freeing" of many basic goods and products from government subsidized programs. For example, a 150 percent price increase for heating oil and cooking gas, a 250 percent hike in the kilowatt cost of electricity, a 50 percent increase for the price of a loaf of bread and a 300 percent increase in the price of poultry in general.
The government argues that these price hikes are essential for the implementation of an International Monetary Fund and World Bank prescribed prerequisites for foreign aid.
President Rafsanjani, a moderate by Iranian standards and an advocate of improved relations with the west, says the price hikes were necessary because the government was essentially giving services - and subsidized goods - for free.
Rafsanjani, like other moderate Iranians, seems convinced that economic recovery largely depends on Western aid.
But some economists argue that the price hikes, and the five-year economic plan itself, have already started to backfire.
This manner of opening the economy may have a reverse effect because it has created a more unequal distribution of wealth ... the poor are disappointed, and they feel targeted ... this is bad for the regime," said a western-educated economist who declined to be identified.
Meanwhile, nearly half of Iran's more than 46 million population live in poverty, according to a published report.
As the barometer nears the crisis point on an aging industrial sector and low productivity, analysts forecast increased pressure on the state from a population expecting quick fixes, and the wealthy traditional Bazaar traders demanding a greater say in economic policy.
"These days every voice is calling for openness, security and development," said an industrialist at a meeting with potential American-Iranian investors in Tehran.
"But in the absence of a political culture, that will take generations. This government has taken positive steps. What could help the process is more understanding from Western industrial nations about the complexities of rebuilding an important Persian Gulf player," he said.
