by Vladimir Zhelyazkov
SOFIA - Nearly five years after the collapse of communism in Bulgaria, the people of this small Balkan country are disillusioned. Many feel that their aspirations for a better life and a brighter future in freedom and democracy have been wickedly betrayed.
In the early post-totalitarian years of 1990-92, the people supported the newly emerged Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) in free elections to overpower - although with a tiny majority - the strongest east European communist party, to form the first non-communist government in 48 years, and elect dissident Philosopher Zhelyu Zhelev as President.
During the election campaign, the UDF promised the electorate all the bliss in the world, ironically including vacations and family bungalows with California-style swimming pools. The short-cut to this Eden was through a set of hastily launched neo-liberal radical reforms contrived by U.S. and International Monetary Fund experts.
But for the success of the reforms the new anti-communist administration had to rely on a set of external factors such as substantial U.S. and west European financial and technological backing, a massive inflow of foreign investments and a rapid integration with Western economies.
Absolute liberalization was introduced instantly, especially in the areas of pricing, internal and foreign trade, production and services, exchange rates and banking.
At the same time, the government pulled out of all state-owned industries, scrapped its foreign trade policy, and began disbanding collective farming. But the problem was that the government did not have a clear plan, or, as some critics say, even an idea as to what these were to be replaced with.
The whole economy was left on auto-pilot at a time when the state administration was disorganized and demoralized because of parallel political purges in the police, the judiciary, and the top and middle level economic and state administration. The disarray meant a field day for corruption and plunder of the national wealth.
As if adding insult to injury, foreign assistance and investments of any substance remained nothing but an elusive dream. At present foreign investments amount to only $230 million, including those made under the old communist regime.
While Bulgaria's foreign investment legislation is considered to be one of the most liberal in the former Eastern Bloc, investors still do not seem to have enough confidence in the economic and political structures of the country. Thus, Bulgaria remains on the periphery of European markets, and with its small population with negligible purchasing power, not an attractive proposition.
Without an external boost, and because of internal political turmoil and confrontation, this ill-conceived and ideologically colored reform process has stalled, and whatever little it has achieved has proved to be disastrous, bringing the country to an acute economic and social crisis.
Production has fallen drastically and the Gross National Product (GNP) in 1993 has dipped to under $12 billion - 50 percent lower than in 1989. Over the same period, Bulgaria lost its traditional markets in the former Soviet Union and exports took a nose dive from $12 billion in 1989 to a meager $3.6 billion last year.
Some highly developed industries such as electronics and armaments suffered heavy blows as markets were largely taken over by competitors in the west.
Agriculture was another casualty.
During the dismantling of the collective farms and the parceling of the land, a large part of the agricultural infrastructure was ruined as farming went back to its pre-war primitive stage.
The cultivation of sugar beet, rice, cotton, tobacco and vegetables was reduced ten fold. Huge vine and orchard plantations lay barren, irrigation systems neglected and demolished, and more than half the cattle herd, including high breeds, slaughtered.
Recently Bulgaria imported vegetables and fruits from Greece and Macedonia, onions and potatoes from Poland, meats and meat products from western Europe, the Czech republic and Hungary, and even powdered milk from the United States and Canada to produce cheese and yogurt.
Today, unemployment exceeds 17 percent in a country of 8.4 million - one of the highest in Eastern Europe - effecting mostly young people, women, and unskilled workers. In some areas and towns almost everyone is without a livelihood.
Creeping inflation has halved real incomes over the past three years. And in early spring of this year when the local currency, the Lev, unexpectedly dropped against the U.S. dollar by 50 percent and an 18 percent value added tax was introduced, the standard of living suffered yet another serious blow.
Presently the average monthly salary in the government sector is $55. It is considerably better than the minimum wage, which stands at $30 and the old age pension of $20 per month. Even retired army officers and high ranking diplomats do not get more than $40.
Over 50 percent of Bulgarians live on or under the poverty line, particularly the pensioners who make up a quarter of the population. A grim picture, but like most other former communist states, not for everyone.
A relatively small group of people have taken advantage of the economic chaos, lawlessness and the corruption of the transition period to get rich - and quickly. Many of them belong to the former nomenclature and disbanded secret police. Others are linked to the new democratic structure.
It is hard for the egalitarian in spirit to assimilate the aggressive and at the same time cynical flaunting of this newly acquired wealth against a background of growing poverty. For now, the reaction is one of resignation, but many observers fear that the potential for social disturbances is brewing and advocate quick social and economic remedies.
Everybody agrees that the only remedy is rapid privatization and a quick, favorable agreement with foreign creditor banks to which Bulgaria owes some $9 billion. Privatization legislation was adopted two years ago , but of the 3,000 state enterprises on the auction bloc, only 20 large and medium size factories and 200 smaller ones have passed into private hands.
In order to accelerate the process, the present government of Lyuben Berov, reluctantly backed by former communists and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms which represents the country's ethnic Turks, formulated a so-called "socially oriented" privatization scheme with vouchers for the whole population.
The plan was approved in June by Parliament despite doubts that even such action could not be a panacea, or cure-all, for the country's predicament.
As University of Munich professor Werner Gumpel says, "It is impossible to make an overnight transition from a planned economy to a free market one. It is time to understand that a market economy can only be built when ideology and romantic illusions are put aside."
For Bulgaria, this can only mean more change, anxiety and even dismay.
Vladimir Zhelyazkov is a Bulgarian reporter working for United Press International in Sophia.
