Yerevan — Four years of independence has given Armenia its first post-communist constitution and new Parliament but no meaningful opposition to safeguard against the temptations of an autocratic regime.
Some critics say the new constitution has given too much power to the President of the Republic. Others say it has blocked millions of Armenians in the Diaspora from taking an active role in the process of nation-building.
"The future of democracy in Armenia, to a very great extent, depends on President Levon Ter Petrossian. His party and allies control Parliament, and this means he has the power to steer the country towards whichever direction he wants," a Western diplomat said in a recent interview.
"Ter Petrossian's critics like former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukian, see the absence of a real opposition in Parliament as a blow to democracy — a view which to a certain extent is often shared even by some of the President's allies.
Under the present lineup, the 190- member Parliament which was elected in June, includes three opposition blocs with only a total of 16 members and very limited representation in the six committees that will draft all future legislation.
Top on the list of priorities are the reform and in-effect re-writing of the old communist judiciary code, setting up the parameters of local administration, and revising the entire civil service code.
"These are crucial areas and will have a tremendous amount of bearing on human rights, the degree of independence the judiciary will enjoy and in effect how the government rules.
"Deciding these issues in the absence of any input from a meaningful Parliamentary opposition could be dangerous if the majority starts abusing its authority. We hope this will not happen," a Western diplomat said.
Given the crucial nature of these issues, it was not surprising to see the importance the ruling Republic Bloc has attached to Parliament's Judiciary and Finance committees.
Parliamentary by-laws drafted by Chairman Babgen Ararktsian and overwhelmingly approved without any debate during a September 11 session, gave President Ter Petrossian's Republic Bloc twenty-nine of the forty-eight seats in each of the key Judiciary and Finance Committees, and only a total of fourteen seats to be spread out among the four remaining twenty-four member committees.
Of the so-called opposition groups, the Armenian Communist Party was assigned two seats each in the Judiciary and Finance Committees and a single seat in every one of the remaining four committees.
The smaller National Democratic Union and the National Self-Determination Union were assigned a single seat each in all six committees.
Furthermore, another set of internal rules introduced by Ararktsian and approved by Parliament effectively banned the formation of new political blocs or alliances within the House along with members moving from one bloc to another.
In the June elections, Ter Petrossian's Republic Bloc led the pack of candidates with a forty-four percent of the popular vote, followed by its ally, the all women Shamiram Organization which got seventeen percent, the Armenian Communist Party, twelve percent, the National Democratic Union, seven percent and the National Self-Determination Union, six percent.
Eight other blocs and smaller parties that ran in the June elections failed to win the minimum five percent of the vote needed to get into Parliament.
The internal rule approved by Parliament means these percentages, along with the number of seats the elected blocs hold, are not allowed to change and those parties or blocs which lost in the June elections have no chance of establishing a presence in the House.
Responding to his muffled critics, Ararktsian said the internal rules had only formalized the will of the electorate.
"The people voted for a bloc or an independent candidate within a bloc of their choice and what we have done is to safeguard their decision — until the next Parliamentary elections when the new House can either amend the internal rules or introduce new ones," Ararktsian said after the vote.
But a Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, had a different explanation, "The distribution of the Parliamentary committee slots and the ban on movement from one bloc to another has further squeezed the opposition into nothing more than ornaments with no clout and probably little effect on all legislative matters.
"We hope that Mr. Ter Petrossian, Armenia's first democratically elected President, and his inner circle, will not use their Parliamentary majority to build an autocratic regime," said the diplomat.
Former Prime M inister Vazgen Manukian, a Ter Petrossian ally-turned critic, said the danger of Parliament becoming a tool in the hands of the administration was real. "Like the old pre-independence Supreme Soviet, this Parliament can become a sort of rubber stamp institution if the President of the Republic and his Parliamentary majority abuse their power.
"Today, people are convinced that their opinions add up to nothing. They are demoralized — at least politically," he said during an informal meeting after the first set of Parliamentary by-laws were voted in giving the Republic Bloc the lion's share in the legislature's key committees.
Manukian, who is also critical of the constitutional powers of the Presidency, seemed to have shifted from his early views on government.
In an interview published in June 1991, Manukian had advocated a "strong pyramid-style Presidential government," adding: "Sometimes it seems this kind of structure is not democratic, but I don't agree."
Several people interviewed recently in the streets of Yerevan indicated little faith in Parliament's ability to change the course of events in Armenia without the steering power of the Presidency.
"This Parliament is not going to change anything. Democracy rests on the shoulders of President Ter Petrossian. Only he can preserve democracy in Armenia because Parliament will do what he says," said a university graduate who refused to give her name.
"Parliament is one-sided and there is no opposition. How can you create a healthy balance without an active opposition like in other democratic countries," another university student said.
Similar views were expressed not only by President Ter Petrossian's opponents, but also to some extent by some of his friends and allies as well.
Parliamentarian Ashot Voskanian, who is one of Ter Petrossian's "not so blind" supporters, is also concerned that in the absence of a real opposition, democracy can risk losing some of its safety latches.
"Today, the majority of the people are indifferent, despite the fact that nearly fifty-five percent of the population voted in the June Parliamentary elections. In fact, what the people voted for was stability. They also voted against revolution," Voskanian said.
A recent poll published by several Yerevan newspapers indicated that while a large proportion of Armenia's eligible voters participated in the June Parliamentary elections, the process was more of an expression of support to the concept of stability and continuity rather than change.
Despite criticism from some Western quarters and some Diaspora-based Armenian political parties, President Ter Petrossian's rule is credited for the peaceful transition from decades of communism.
"We have made a lot of progress despite the chaotic nature of the former Parliament which was elected before independence. There was so much debate that the Parliamentary proceedings were like a football game — except for the fact that the game often ended in a draw," Voskanian said.
"All that has changed now because the June elections put an end to gridlock. We are moving ahead now," he said.
Voskanian, who served as chairman of the outgoing Parliament's ethics committee, said the present legislature was also streamlined to improve its performance and make it more dynamic.
"Parliament now has fewer members and only six committees instead of sixteen. The committees are better consolidated and include people with more experience — and exposure to freedom and democracy. There is more coherence, and therefore we expect better results," he said.
"One thing is certain, gridlock is out," Voskanian said.
The new Parliament also has twelve women legislators — an increase from three-and-a half to six-and-a-half percent in comparison with the outgoing Parliament.
One of them is Hranoush Hagobian, a former communist party functionary, who has long switched sides and is now one of the most outspoken supporters of President Ter Petrossian.
Ms. Hagobian, who led the Armenian delegation to the Beijing World Conference on Women in September, is not ashamed of her political past, and very enthusiastic about her role in nation building.
"Politicians change sides every year... but I am not a politician. I was a communist and now I am an Armenian nationalist. As a member in the former communist era Parliament, I voted for democracy," she said in an interview.
A university graduate with degrees in Mathematics, Law and Political Science — and years of service as First Secretary of the Armenian Communist Youth Movement — Ms. Hagobian is a strict disciplinarian.
As head of the Social Affairs, Health and Ecology Committee she has already started work on laying the foundations for a better quality of life for fellow Armenians.
"We need a lot of reforms in all three sectors which I consider as one of my priorities. There is a lot more to what Parliament needs to do than just playing politics.
"I believe in compromise rather than blind opposition. We can change things without confrontation, and I am sure this Parliament will contribute to the democratic process which started four years ago. The constitution guarantees the freedom of thought and expression, and Parliament will be the first to exercise this sacred privilege," she said.
