by David Zenian
All it takes is a close look at recent government statistics to see how serious social conditions are in landlocked post-communist Armenia.
In a country with limited resources and facing a blockade by neighboring Turkey and Azerbaijan, the question now is not how to deal with the poor, but rather the very poor.
"We are facing some very difficult choices", says Social Welfare Minister Gagik Yeganian. "We do not have the resources to help all those in need."
According to Yeganian, there are 584,000 registered pensioners, 110,000 handicapped people, 42,000 orphans, and 18,000 single mothers who care for 22,000 children.
There are also more than 200,000 refugees who are mostly Armenians from Azerbaijan, but also include 11,000 Armenian refugees from the troubled regions of Abkhazia, Chechnya and Tajikistan. According to records, 14,000 refugee families have no permanent housing.
For Armenia, with a population of a little over three million, these numbers are staggering, especially at a time when the country is facing serious unemployment.
According to statistics recently compiled by the Ministry of Social Welfare, 30 percent of the population is "extremely poor", 54.7 percent is "generally poor", three percent is considered "rich" and the remaining 12.3 percent "middle class".
Conditions are getting worse, especially for the hundreds of thousands of pensioners, not only because of a sharp decline in humanitarian aid, but also the constant shrinking of government subsidies and the increasing cost of living.
"A few years ago the pensioners still had some personal assets like a few pieces of jewelry, carpets, books, silverware, and even cash. They started selling to supplement their meager incomes. They have sold everything now," Yeganian said. The pensioners also lost most of their government subsidies on things like electricity, water, telephones, transportation and basic food products.
But despite these factors, their pension has all but remained the same-at least in real terms. "To say what five dollars could buy in 1993 is the same as what eight dollars buys today is a fallacy. In 1993 the pensioners did not pay for water, electricity, or transportation. Bread was subsidized and so was butter, sugar and other essential commodities. All that is gone now but their income has only gone up a fraction", Yeganian added.
Economists say that the average monthly bread basket which covers only the nutritional needs of one person, costs 18,000 drams, or 36 US dollars, while the overall consumption basket, which also factors in items like clothing, utilities and other essentials, costs 30,000 Drams, or 60 U.S. Dollars.
The pensioners get 4,000 drams, or eight dollars a month, but how can they subsist on this little. Government sources say the shadow economy fills in part of the gap.
"Some help comes from relatives and friends working outside Armenia. Others receive aid from international humanitarian agencies, but all this only just prevents people from going hungry," a government expert said.
It is no secret that every family in Armenia has at least one or more of its members living and working outside the country. There are no official figures for the expatriate Armenian communities across the former Soviet Union, east Europe and other countries, but sources agree that the figure is "not much less than one million."
The socio-economic problem is one of the most urgent items on the government's agenda along with the economy. New jobs are being created every day, but they are mainly in the service sector. Most communist-era factories, which once employed hundreds of thousands of people, are idle.
Foreign investment is just beginning to trickle in. Major funding is needed in the education and health sectors along with reforms in administrative process. "There are no easy solutions, but modernization and a better knowledge of where most of the need lies may help improve conditions." Yeganian said.
To better utilize the government's limited resources, the authorities are sifting through masses of data in an effort to zero in on the "real" needs of the people. An in-depth socio-economic survey done with the assistance of foreign experts has helped understand the conditions better.
"We have poor people, but we also have very poor people. No detail has been overlooked in evaluating the needs of those on the government's list. The earthquake zone remains a priority, but this does not mean others should be neglected," Yeganian said.
In trying to draw the line between the "poor" and "very poor", the government is looking into the family status of each pensioner, their actual living conditions, and details like whether they live in rented premises, in domigs (shacks) or privately-owned housing.
The detailed survey, which followed a government call in 1993-94 for families to come forward if they considered themselves poor, produced a list that consists 700,000 families -- close to the entire population of the country, if five is taken as the average size of a family in Armenia.
Based on the outcome of the survey, which was initially prepared to help the distribution of humanitarian aid, the authorities now have a better understanding of the social conditions of the population.
"Someone owning a 1991 model or newer car did not make the poor list. The same was true with people who had a license to operate a private business. The on-going process however, was able to eliminate only 11,000 families from the original 700,000 who were on the early list," Yeganian said.
Solutions are not easy, but the government is determined to move forward through a number of safety-net methods which it hopes will improve living conditions. Yeganian said he has made plans to set up "soup kitchens" to feed the elderly which would also be open to anyone who walks in. "Armenians are a proud people, and I am sure that only the most needy will come to these facilities," he said.
Another solution would be the introduction of low-cost insurance which would kick in at times of lengthy unemployment and illness.
"We are constantly looking for long-term solutions which will help future generations of Armenians. Nation building is not easy," he said.
Opposition leaders like two-time presidential candidate Vazgen Manoukian say the administration of President Robert Kocharian has yet to come to grips with the difficult problems facing the nation. Similar remarks are also often made by fellow presidential candidate and communist-era leader Karen Demirchian who lost to Kocharian by eighteen percentage points in the 1998 elections.
"This government, like its predecessors, is acting like a father who tells his child: Go take care of yourself. I am not saying that government should do everything for people, but at the same time it should not neglect their basic needs," Demirdjian said.
"In this country, teachers make 25 to 30 dollars a month. University graduates are unable to find jobs and are selling beer and cigarettes on street corners. Hundreds of thousands of people have left the country, and morale is low.
"Under these conditions, it is normal for people to blame the government for everything that is wrong in Armenia. Is the answer in the return of a socialist system...maybe. The old (communist) system was by no means perfect, and it will never come back, but we are in a crisis now, and if socialism is the answer, then so be it," Demirchian said.
Opposition leader Vazgen Manoukian is also apprehensive of Armenia's future. "We have not seen any tangible and qualitative changes in most directions. For those of us who live in Armenia, we have a set of different priorities than the Armenians in the Diaspora.
"We have to concentrate on the economy, the creation of new jobs, social justice, the welfare of our pensioners and issues which are directly related with the well-being of the population," he said.
There are no easy answers to these problems, but as slow as improvements might look, progress is being made.
