by David Zenian
Yerevan - For a nation that has survived the darkest days of post-World War II communism, independent Armenia today is fighting for its life with a degree of stoicism seldom seen in a country under siege.
That is the view of resident foreign relief agency officials braving the sub-zero temperatures to help a land-locked country the size of Belgium now on the brink of total economic collapse and famine.
Armenia, often described as the most industrialized state in the Caucasus, may be limited in natural resources and agricultural land, but its greatest asset still remains its skilled and educated work force - now largely unemployed because of a devastating blockade by neighboring Azerbaijan.
Short of a few peaceful rallies demanding Parliamentary reform and constitutional changes to allow greater power sharing between the executive and legislative branches of government, there are no "bread riots" or angry and violent demonstrations in Armenia.
"What I find absolutely astounding is that Armenians are not complaining. I think that's why the world as a whole does not really understand what's happening here," said Ms. Suzanne G. Olds, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Armenia representative, in a recent interview.
"I think that almost anywhere else in the world, people would be rioting in the streets, but they are very stoic here. They are living a life of quiet desperation. I think they are very brave and they don't complain," she said.
Ms. Olds, like other relief and aid officials, is convinced that there is more suffering in Armenia today than what meets the eye. "If you compare it with Somalia, then we are not in a Somalia situation. But I think we (the United States) waited way too long in Somalia. I don't think that we have to wait until children start dropping dead in the streets (of Armenia) before we begin to call this an emergency," she said.
In fact, according to available statistics, there is more than an emergency. The elderly are losing an average of 2 to 3 kilograms of their body weight every few months because of malnutrition. Infant mortality is on the rise and so are other illnesses associated with inadequate hygiene due to the lack of energy.
"It's cold - It's cold in the homes. There is no heat, there is almost no electricity, so what do you do? You go home and sit in a cold, dark home. You have very little food. The children do not go to school ... It's a miserable life," she said.
The paramount cause of the severe living conditions, the lack of energy and fuel, is the deadly blockade imposed by Azerbaijan on Armenia. The existing "problems and difficulties" of access routes through Turkey and neighboring Georgia only add to the misery.
"It does not take much knowledge of arithmetic to understand that people are hungry here, and in fact, there is no doubt that some people are starving," she said. Ms. Olds said while the entire population of 3.5 million was facing severe shortages, the nation's pensioners were among the worst hit. Their fixed monthly income of a few thousand rubles a month is nowhere near the estimated 10,000 rubles needed for the basic food basket.
"Like the rest of the people, pensioners do not have cooking gas, so they eat things that they don't have to cook, like bread and water. They cannot afford to buy fruit, so the belief is that most of them live on bread and .. perhaps some sort of tea or coffee," she said.
Like the elderly, newborn infants are also in a dire state. "Imagine a country where there is no baby food, no baby formula. The number of mothers nursing has dropped from about 67 percent to about 42 percent when the baby is four months old. And when we asked doctors why, they said it was because of the stress, because of the mothers' diets."
"We see pre-indicators of famine ... According to the Center for Disease Control, you can see famine coming," said Ms. Olds, one of the first international relief officials sounding the alarm. "These indicators are pretty accurate. We see at least five of these indicators in Armenia today. There is mass movement of the population to areas outside the country, the increasing amount of land not under production or use, the consumption and eating of seeds originally intended for planting, selling of household goods and a strong black market."
"I cannot tell whether there will be mass starvation .. but people will die from starvation," she said.
