by David Zenian
Yerevan - Few people have been involved in disaster relief work as much as Stuart Willcuts, and what he has seen in Armenia is enough to sound the alarm.
"If the situation in this country is not dealt with, if peace is not brought, if the (Azerbaijani) blockade is not reduced, then the whole population is on a very slippery slope," he said in a recent interview.
Willcuts, in Armenia on mission for the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said a large segment of the population was not far from starvation.
According to Armenian government and international relief agency workers, some 350,000 refugees and an estimated 560,000 retirees and pensioners were the largest block of the population facing severe malnutrition and ill health.
"The purchasing power of the refugees, as well as the local people, has deteriorated dramatically, so that even though there may be some items available in the market, they have no capacity to buy it because the ruble is not worth anything. So, there is a gradual deterioration of the health of the refugees and the nutrition of the children," Willcuts said.
He said because of a combination of factors, including lack of energy which has forced the closure of all factories, the lack of heat which has kept the entire student population at home this winter, spiraling inflation and the overburdening of existing social services, Armenia was in a very precarious condition.
"The early warning group at the U.S. State department that tracks the republics of the former Soviet Union has projected a worst case scenario for Armenia ... that 30,000 people could starve this year, and more than half a million would be in a very precarious situation during this year," he said.
Was famine a possibility? "Not in the sense of Somalia, but just lack of access that the people have to food. They are settling for potatoes, they are settling on bread, and this is not an adequate diet. So, they become vulnerable to disease, to poor health, to the cold," he said.
Willcuts, an American, said in his long career in disaster relief, he had never seen a country facing what Armenia is facing today.
"I have been in disaster relief and refugee work for more than 20 years. I have been in Africa, southeast Asia, Latin America, but this is my first time in what we could call a developed country, to watch a country go from being somewhat developed to join the ranks of the lesser developed, underdeveloped countries.
'"It is a country that was a viable part of the Soviet Union. It was one of the more wealthy and better educated of the former Soviet Union republics, and it still has the tremendous potential, it still has the people who are educated, it has the momentum to continue that, but due to the current situation they are not able to pursue that same degree of development.
"We can provide band-aids for this winter, maybe next winter, but the answers are in development, on getting the country back on an economic, stable basis so that it can take care of itself."
